Shopify (NYSE: SHOP) The stock posted a better-than-expected return, rising 17% in early trading. Management has outlined that the company is poised to get back on track after several weak quarters with sales well below expectations. Shopify executives have previously said investments in the product mix have yielded lower-than-expected returns. The investment was important in getting the company back on the growth track.

Your Shopify investment pays off

Monthly recurring revenue increased from 8% to 107% as Shopify Plus merchants and retailers used Point of Sale (POS) services to drive monthly recurring revenue (MRR). Shopify Plus MRR was 33% compared to 28% in the same quarter in 2021. Shopify continues to target entrepreneurs and start-ups, looking to convert them into Plus merchants in the future by offering a range of services that will benefit their businesses. Enter the small business realm.

Shopify’s total merchandise value grew in double digits, up 11% in the quarter. Gross payments increased from 49% of gross merchandise value (GMV) to 54% year-over-year (YOY). This was due to the adoption of new US and international merchants boosting revenue and a better mix contributing to improved profitability. Merchant Solutions grew 26%, and Shopify is investing more in the service to improve synergies between product sales and payments. Merchant solutions tend to have lower margins, with gross margins up 9% to $681 million, lower than the 22% increase in top line.
Operating losses continue to be a factor. In the current quarter he posted a loss of $45 million, compared to his $120 million profit in the same quarter of 2021. The lack of profitability can be attributed to a low-margin product mix and increased costs. These costs are primarily due to sales, marketing, and research and development, both of which make up a significant portion of Shopify’s operating costs.

Tailwind from SMEs

Small business optimism continued to improve in October despite current economic conditions, marking the third straight month of improvement. Inflation remains the hottest topic for small businesses, but the number of small businesses planning (or planning to) raise prices fell to 51% last month, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.

Shopify is also starting to acquire many large merchants such as Cole Haan and Panasonic in addition to already established players such as Gymshark. Shopify also continues to partner with various technology companies, including: Pinterest (NYSE: Pins) Stripe and PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) to its platform in order to better serve its customers. By integrating these partners into its platform, the company has been able to attract high-margin clients who already have established sales networks. This could return margins to previous levels and help the company return to profitability sooner than investors expect.

International markets will continue to be key to Shopify’s growth if the e-commerce giant maintains its growth rate. Shopify continued to improve its international presence during the fourth quarter by enabling merchants to sell products across borders and offering a range of logistics, currency, and marketing solutions, with Shopify Markets Added 175,000 merchants to the platform in a month.

Shopify Capital will bring progress for merchants, and small businesses should also see significant growth across the global marketplace. Since the Dodd-Frank Act, many small businesses have remained underserved in terms of working capital, offering an opportunity for Shopify to fill a gap that banks typically fill. , Shopify Capital took advantage of the situation, increasing total loans 29% year-over-year to $509 million in Q3.

Shopify’s stock has fallen nearly 80% from its 52-week high, is now trading at about seven times its sales, and remains relatively expensive. Historically, stocks with expected growth rates of 20% to 25% can expect a 5x valuation. The lack of profitability will make investors cautious despite the post-earnings rise. Long-term earnings may be lower than other tech companies as product mix drives down gross margins. Unlike competitors such as Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN)Shopify’s capex is not high, with an average capex of around $45 million.

Global expansion

Shopify continues to focus on global expansion and improving cross-selling as it aims to bring in more merchants, from entrepreneurs and basic service levels to SMB and Plus levels. Our focus on both doing what we do and providing better tools will help merchants continue to leapfrog. So far, expansion plans are going well, but investors expect Shopify to be profitable. Considering current gross margins, long-term profitability could be around 20%. there is. For now, management is focused on service expansion and global reach.
Overall, Shopify seeks to position itself as a premium e-commerce company that offers end-to-end services, compared to competitors such as WooCommerce and BigCommerce, who are taking a more targeted approach to merchants. It remains to be seen if this strategy will pay off in comparison.